贝叶斯主义得名于 Thomas Bayes。1763年，在他去世后发表的论文《An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances》中，Bayes 讨论的核心问题并不是“如何做贝叶斯回归”，而是更原初的事情： 已知观察结果，如何反推未知原因的概率？
de Finetti 把主观概率推进到了前台。 在他那里，概率不是外部世界里长出来的自然刻度，而是主体对命题的可信程度（degree of belief）。 著名的 Dutch Book argument（荷兰书论证） 则提供了一种一致性约束： 如果你的信念不能用概率公理表示，别人就可以构造一组赌局，保证你无论如何都输钱。 也就是说，不满足概率法则的信念系统会在行为上暴露为不一致。[^^1]
Savage：主观主义与决策理论的系统整合
Savage 把这些想法进一步系统化。他关心的不只是“你相信什么”，更是“在不确定下你如何行动”。 由此，贝叶斯主义开始和期望效用理论深度耦合。 概率不再只服务于认识论，也服务于决策。
Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy.
Understand ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you.
Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games.
You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity —- a piece of a business—-to gain your financial freedom.
You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get, at scale.
Pick an industry where you can play long-term games with long-term people.
The internet has massively broadened the possible space of careers. Most people haven’t figured this out yet.
Play iterated games. All the returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest.
Don’t partner with cynics and pessimists. Their beliefs are self-fulfilling.
Learn to sell. Learn to build. If you can do both, you will be unstoppable.
Arm yourself with specific knowledge, accountability, and leverage.
Specific knowledge is knowledge you cannot be trained for. If society can train you, it can train someone else and replace you.
Specific knowledge is found by pursuing your genuine curiosity and passion rather then whatever is hot right now.
Building specific knowledge will feel like play to you but will look like work to others.
When specific knowledge is taught, it’s through apprenticeships, not schools.
Specific knowledge is often highly technical or creative. It cannot be outsourced or automated.
Embrace accountability, and take business risks under your own name. Society will reward you with responsibility, equity, and leverage.
Fortunes require leverage. Business leverage comes from capital, people, and products with no marginal costs of replication ( code and media ).
Capital means money. To raise money, apply your specific knowledge with accountability and show resulting good judgment.
Labor means people working for you. It’s the oldest and most fought-over form of leverage. Labor leverage will impress your parents, but don’t waste your life chasing it.
Capital and labor are permissioned leverage. Everyone is chasing capital, but someone has to give it to you. Everyone is trying to lead, but someone has to follow you.
Code and media are permissionless leverage. They’re the leverage behind the newly rich. You can create software and media that works for you while you sleep.
An army of robots is freely available — it’s just packed in data centers for heat and space efficiency. Use it.
If you can’t code, write books and blogs, record videos and podcats.
Leverage is a force multiple for your judgment.
Judgment requires experience but can be build faster by learning foundational skills.
There is no skills called “business”. Avoid business magazines and business classes.
Study microeconomics, game theory, psychology, persuasion ethics, mathematics, and computers.
Reading is faster then listening. Doing is faster than watching.
You should be too busy to “do coffee” while still keeping an uncluttered calendar.
Set and enforce an aspirational personal hourly rate. If fixing a problem will save less than your hourly rate, ignore it. If outsourcing a task will cost less than your hourly rate, outsource it.
Work as hard as you can. Even though who you work with and what you work on are more important then how hard you work.
Become the best int the world at what you do. keep redefining what you do until this is true.
There are no get-rich-quick schemes. Those are just someone else getting rich off you.
Apply specific knowledge, with leverage, and eventually you will get what you deserve.
When you’re finally wealthy, you’ll realize it wasn’t what you were seeking in the first place. But that is for another day.
we waste our time with short-term thinking and busywork. Warren Buffett spends a year deciding and a day acting. That act lasts decades.
